A few months back, Manifold Markets ran a contest to predict grant awardees. That's different from a donor score but it might be interesting to see if there are any lessons to be drawn from that experience.


Here's the predictions (set the filter to "All" to see them): https://manifold.markets/group/clearer-thinking-regrants/markets

Here's the final leaderboards: https://manifold.markets/group/clearer-thinking-regrants/leaderboards

I'm not sure what the obvious takeaways would be. The contest did prompt a lot of interesting discussion on the potential effectiveness of various projects. (There were secondary prizes for the best commentary, but swaying the grantors to one's own picks may have been its own reward.)

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